ND winning the election, leading independently with 40% of the votes, I had already predicted in my social networks post (at noon on the election day). After watching the election, I can say what I had not anticipated was the large percentage of SYRIZA votes. However, this percentage of the main opposition is reflected in the social categories of people who went to the ballot box after 16:00, namely students and the unemployed. These are two categories that, in my opinion, Mr. Tsipras approached both through his television appearance on SKAI TV and with the benefits he gave (rent allowances, cards for the purchase of basic necessities, unemployment benefits, the tax-free and low property tax). Especially with the latest promises, he won many votes in some of the more popular areas.
There is a third category that has turned to SYRIZA – after PASOK- and it consists of foreign people. People who have been, and continue to be, frightened by the Bad Right’s rise to power. For example, in the statements made by the president of the Union of Muslims of Greece, he said that “the Bad Right is coming, and it will take away our benefits” while also stressing that “New Democracy brings an anti-immigration policy”. On the other hand, the current Prime Minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, included 21 persons from the technocrat field in this government and has decided to open up to all areas of the center.
The election result of the 7th of July is very important for Greece, Europe and the United States. Golden Dawn, once considered the worst and the cruellest of all of Europe’s far-right movements, has failed to reach the three-percentage point threshold to enter parliament. A mere few years prior, the party received double-digit support.
Alexis Tsipras, who became less populist and leftist over time, is now the main opposition, having received the support of 31.5% of the electorate. The part, in many ways, has now taken on the mantle of center-left that the socialist PASOK had held until recently, before its collapse. This shows the Greek people are very tired of populism.
New Democracy’s victory was welcomed, naturally, by the business community and international investors. After a year of economic austerity and a very slow return to growth, Greece and its EU partners are looking for new approaches to get the country back on track. Kyriakos Mitsotakis now faces the difficult process of fulfilling the expectations of an exhausted society and conservative economies in key EU countries. Like his predecessor, he may be eager to secure some relief, perhaps under the weight of Greek borrowing. Eurozone partners may refuse this time around, though.
Here I would like to point out that the choice to put Adonis Georgiadis at the Ministry of Development, though questionable to some, was the right call, as he is, despite everything, a hardworking person who brings results. The choice of Mr. Chrysochoidis and Mr. Economou in the Ministry of Citizen Protection also seems to be wise. Also, the inclusion of the Ministry of Migration Policy in the Citizen Protection Department shows that the government is determined to implement the repatriation programs and accelerate the process of examining asylum applications.
But migration, which has become a slow-burning bomb, needs a lot of attention. This is because, as I have pointed out before in specific analyses on the subject, those who will manage it must be accepted by these large social groups. If the opposite happens, then instead of being solved, the migration issue will continue to create a serious headache for the government, resulting in frivolous measures that will create more problems instead of solving it.
One of the biggest challenges for this government is the Franco-German political system chosen to govern the country by the current Prime Minister. Will it succeed in practice or not? Better coordination needs to take place.
The new government also faces crucial policy choices regarding the Balkans and the Aegean. Part of New Democracy’s electoral success came from its ability to appeal to the right-wing nationalists. The “Prespa Agreement”, as they call it, on North Macedonia’s name, which finally paved the way for the country’s NATO and EU membership, was an actual achievement of the previous government.
But although it has been fodder for nationalist forces in Greece, New Democracy has made full use of the expression of reaction in its campaign. In a similar way, the party listened to the issues that have arisen with Cyprus, energy issues in the Eastern Mediterranean, and relations with Turkey.
Given its cultural affinity and economic ties to Russia, Greece will never be at the forefront if it is to keep a hard line with the regime in Moscow. But the Mitsotakis government has the time to stay under the transatlantic “umbrella” by applying sanctions to other Russia-related issues. China could pose the biggest challenge to Greece’s transatlantic relations, that is, if the government proceeds to further liberalize Chinese activity at the port of Piraeus, in its pursuit of a more open approach to foreign investment.
The outcome of the elections is a positive development for Greece, the wider region and transatlantic relations. After years of economic austerity, Greece’s partners should be ready to help the country and take a more flexible stance on its finances and debt. Also, the management of the refugee crisis should be different. On the Greek side, it is very important that the new government moves away from the nationalist pre-election rhetoric that it used, in favour of stability in our neighbourhood, especially in the increased-risk period that we are facing.